The year 2014 was marked by some important transitions for the Federal Reserve. The economic signals look good domestically for an economic lift-off, but overseas, there are some clouds on the horizon that could impact the US.
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We can reverse the 3-decade decline in firm start-up rates: reform immigration law to grant more permanent work visas to high-skilled immigrants, especially those educated in U.S. universities with STEM degrees; and reform Obamacare.
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2014 was the year that the federal budget deficit largely disappeared from the political debate, but the deficit and the debt will be a problem in the future unless we do something about them someday.
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After months of disappointing employment numbers, the country is finally seeing some hope as the fragile recovery grows stronger. But a number of challenges remain. Here are 10 facts to keep in mind for 2015 and beyond.
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The job market continued to improve in 2014, and the gains were widely distributed across industrial sectors. But judged solely by workers' gains in wages and fringe benefits, the workplace is still a buyers' market.
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We can trace the change in real wages to three primary determinants: gains in labor productivity, the division of earned income between labor and capital (profits), and the allocation of labor compensation among wages and nonwage benefits.
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Thanks to low mortgage rates, relatively low inventories, and an improving labor market, 2015 should see stronger growth in home construction and sales, helping feed stronger economic growth.
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As people live longer, it is clear that institutions will have to adapt. Many are doing so: specialized senior residences, travel — even online matchmaking. But pensions & retirement savings plans, however, have not kept pace.
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While the financial sector is safer than it was at the time of the crisis, our regulatory system is still fragmented, reducing its effectiveness. The next two years may bring incremental improvements, but everything will be up for grabs in 2016.
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The Obamacare wars are now six years old and will continue at least two years more in both legal and political venues. With healthcare accounting for nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy and deep philosophical divisions between the two parties, the conflict is not surprising.
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Major tax reform is always unlikely, but it has occurred in the past and many political leaders seem motivated to pursue it this year. How 2015 goes will determine how we end up thinking about 2014.
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2015 is likely to bring a full-blown invasion and transformation of higher education. This disruption will have profound and beneficial consequences for the education and finances of millions of young Americans and their parents.
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While fracking jobs may suffer, oil production is not a dominant part of the U.S. economy; the positive stimulus from lower gas prices for consumers will outweigh the negative effects on employment and GDP in 2015.
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High rates of crime and incarceration impose tremendous costs on society, with lasting negative effects on individuals, families, and communities. Although crime rates in the US have been falling steadily, they still constitute a serious economic and social challenge.
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Congress and the administration need the will to undertake serious reforms in entitlement programs and could start with the Social Security Disability Insurance Program. SSDI should be a practice run for the much bigger problem of solving the Medicare Trust Fund problem.
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